Can Modi checkmate Mamata?

Arindam Sarkar

In the recently concluded civic polls 2015, the BJP has been whitewashed – much to the embarrassment of the sangh parivar – by the Trinamool Congress in Bengal.

Already down after failing to push through the much controversial Land Acquisition Bill in the Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi now faces a litmus test in leading the BJP in the forthcoming Assembly elections in Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in 2016.

Assembly elections in Bengal will be held in April 2016 and it is to seen if Modi and his saffron brigade can stop Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee from completely decimating the Opposition forces in the State. According to political pundits, Narendra Modi and the BJP will find the going tough.

The last time the BJP in Bengal got revitalized was between 1998 and 2004 when former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee led the Sangh Parivar in the elections. Ten years later, the BJP in Bengal is riding the wave generated by Narendra Modi. In 2014 general elections, the BJP won two parliamentary seats in Bengal. In 2015, it won the Assembly by-election of Basirhat South.

Much hype was generated in the city during the Narendra Modi rally at the Brigade Parade Grounds on February 5, 2014. In this rally, which was attended by the then BJP national president Rajnath Singh, General Secretary and Central Observer for Bengal Varun Gandhi and State BJP president Rahul Sinha, Modi went hammer and tongs against the Left Front for their 34 years of misrule in Bengal and the poor governance and corruption of the UPA Government at the Centre. He kicked-off the campaign for the 2014 parliamentary polls and urged the people to vote for the BJP.

Bengal got the first glimpse of Narendra Modi in April 2013, when he addressed the business leaders and party workers in the city. He said development of Bengal would make the eastern India powerful. It took a concerted effort of 10-12 years to make Gujarat what it is now. Similarly, Bengal that has been potholed by the Marxists would take some time to revive itself. But, he believed, Bengal was moving in the right direction.

“Bengal has been neglected by the Centre. Bengal will show us the way. It is important to recognize the strength of Bengal,” said Modi. “Agriculture and industry would happen together.” It was a whistle-stop visit but Modi created an impact.

The BJP leaders think that in the ensuing Assembly polls, their primary fight would be against the CPI(M) and the Trinamool, not the Congress. People have rejected the Congress because of law and order failure, price hike, corruption and poor governance of the UPA.

“Voting for the Left Front or the Triamool Congress means voting for the friends of the Congress. Both supported the UPA,” said State BJP secretary Ritesh Tiwari. BJP Secretary and Central Observer for Bengal Siddhartha Nath Singh emphasized: “The only alternative for the people is the BJP.”

There is a perception that Modi is drawing huge support among the youth and that would translate into votes. It is the new voters along with the traditional BJP vote-bank of 15 to 17 per cent in Bengal (which in 1998 and 1999 stood at 13 per cent and got them the parliamentary seats of Dum Dum and Krishnanagar and one MLA) that is expected to yield results in Nadia, North 24 Parganas, Birbhum, Coochbehar, Balurghat and Midnapore districts of Bengal.

“In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, there was an outburst against CPI(M)’s arrogance and misdeeds. In 2011 Assembly polls both the Congress and the Left were marginalized. This time, Bengal is unhappy with the Trinamool,” said State BJP general secretary Shamik Bhattacharya.

The BJP leaders said the idea of Federal Front being mooted by Mamata Banerjee is a non-starter. India has seen the flip-flop United Front Governments of Prime Ministers Deve Gowda and IK Gujral. So instead of wasting the votes, people should send BJP leaders to the State Assembly and Parliament to fulfil their aspirations.

Rahul Sinha said Narendra Modi is the symbol of development, progress, secularism, industrialisation and a modern India. Voting for BJP means development of Bengal, which for 39 years has been deprived of industrialization, employment and growth. Bengal can benefit from Modi’s leadership and become a happening State like Gujarat.

“People who voted for change against the CPI(M) and brought the Trinamool to power are frustrated. It is the same politico-administrative nexus that is choking Bengal. There is no health and education system and women are unsafe in Bengal,” alleged Rahul Sinha.

Charismatic, dependable and proactive Narendra Modi has emerged as the mascot of developing India. BJP leaders pointed out that during the Assembly polls, people have to choose either a regional leader like Mamata Banerjee or a national symbol like Narendra Modi.

Former BJP Union Minister of State Tapan Sikdar said given her inconsistency, people should think twice before filling Mamata’s kitty. The emergence of Modi and his ability to infuse energy into the BJP has made the State party a fighting outfit. “Modi is a big hit in urban areas and towns. BJP will do well in these areas,” Tapan Sikdar had remarked.

However, the CPI(M) and the Trinamool does not give much chance to the BJP in the elections. According to the Marxists, the divisive and the communal politics of BJP have no buyers in Bengal. The Muslims won’t vote for them. A stand that is maintained by former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and the CPI(M) State Secretary Surjya Kanta Mishra.

Completely rubbishing the Opposition charge, the BJP leaders said that in Gujarat, where the 2002 Godhra Riots occurred, the Muslims under Modi were safe, secured and thriving. The BJP leaders argued: “Muslims are getting employment and education. What’s more, at least seven lakh Muslims of Bengal are working in Gujarat. That Muslims are unsafe under BJP and Modi is a canard.”

Rahul Sinha claimed Muslims have understood that like the CPI(M), Mamata Banerjee is also exploiting them for votes. In Bengal, Muslims are only being appeased but they have no employment, madrasas are not being modernized and they remain economically backward. “Mamata’s stipend for imams meant ignoring the majority and bribing the few,” said Rahul Sinha.

The battle lines are drawn. Trinamool Congress is upbeat, despite the ponzy scam that has tarnished the party and the government, and Mamata Banerjee is confident of a second term as chief minister. And given the Mamata wave, it would be a miracle if the RSS man from Gujarat manages to win enough seats for the BJP in Bengal. NaMo certainly faces an uphill task.